Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.353657 2.763126 3.217848 3.759588 4.386741 5.089252 5.935169
2025-11-02 1.605435 2.118238 2.751774 3.589007 4.663114 5.991340 7.754612
2025-11-09 1.141579 1.663627 2.369374 3.386545 4.807212 6.711970 9.448630
2025-11-16 0.878800 1.394942 2.148529 3.317460 5.070730 7.584929 11.440683
2025-11-23 0.704136 1.205443 1.988627 3.283945 5.350493 8.490189 13.580935
2025-11-30 0.612236 1.120267 1.962459 3.435390 5.914129 9.871653 16.601023
2025-12-07 0.517353 1.007657 1.866748 3.449199 6.246645 10.920952 19.221745
2025-12-14 0.438516 0.905735 1.767923 3.434596 6.518250 11.891124 21.819514
2025-12-21 0.377811 0.824631 1.690172 3.440268 6.817870 12.934555 24.657737
2025-12-28 0.358246 0.820866 1.755983 3.722457 7.659441 15.031257 29.611697
2026-01-04 0.320844 0.772030 1.723812 3.805371 8.127532 16.492651 33.559565
2026-01-11 0.290534 0.732489 1.703395 3.907036 8.642616 18.096692 37.953798
2026-01-18 0.255519 0.676475 1.641229 3.916978 8.984482 19.429930 42.033803
2026-01-25 0.216148 0.601870 1.525227 3.791096 9.022910 20.163147 45.010145
2026-02-01 0.179045 0.524638 1.388984 3.595665 8.878420 20.495991 47.194473
2026-02-08 0.154876 0.476020 1.312739 3.528902 9.014849 21.443418 50.801589
2026-02-15 0.135887 0.437357 1.254304 3.495652 9.223820 22.573082 54.938040
2026-02-22 0.127715 0.428207 1.271282 3.657158 9.927770 24.906722 62.056987
2026-03-01 0.114656 0.401253 1.235058 3.672122 10.265985 26.424753 67.451142
2026-03-08 0.102168 0.373147 1.190431 3.656742 10.523518 27.778960 72.607500
2026-03-15 0.091905 0.349875 1.155529 3.662801 10.838341 29.308720 78.358464
2026-03-22 0.091083 0.358693 1.218525 3.962188 11.991084 33.063373 90.020968
2026-03-29 0.084417 0.345326 1.210689 4.050142 12.567757 35.409633 98.370986